Risk factors for mortality during the 2002 landslides in Chuuk, Federated States of Micronesia

This study examines health effects resulting from landslides in Chuuk during Tropical Storm Chata'an in July 2002, and suggests strategies to prevent future mortality. In August 2002, we conducted a cross-sectional survey to identify risk factors for mortality during landslides, which included 52 survivors and 40 surrogates for 43 decedents to identify risk factors for death. Findings suggest that 1) females had a higher mortality rate from this event than males, and 2) children aged 5–14 years had a 10-fold increase in mortality when compared with annual mortality rates from all causes. Awareness of landslides occurring elsewhere and knowledge of natural warning signs were significantly associated with lower risks of death; being outside during landslides was not associated with reduced mortality. In Chuuk, improving communication systems during tropical storms and increasing knowledge of natural warnings can reduce the risk for mortality during landslides.     

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and their oxygen-containing derivatives (OPAHs) in soils from the Angren industrial area, Uzbekistan

We measured the concentrations and depth distribution (0-10, 10-20 cm) of 31 PAHs and 12 OPAHs in soils at eleven equidistant sampling points along a 20-km transect in the Angren industrial region (coal mine, power plant, rubber factory, gold mine), Uzbekistan to gain an insight into their concentrations, sources, and fate. Concentrations of all compounds were mostly much higher in the 0-10 cm than in the 10-20 cm layer except in disturbed soil close to the coal mine. Proximity to one of the industrial emitters was the main determinant of PAH and OPAH concentrations. The ∑31PAHs concentrations correlated positively with the ∑7 carbonyl-OPAH (r = 0.98, p < 0.01), ∑5 hydroxyl-OPAH (r = 0.72, p < 0.05), and with industrially emitted trace metals in the topsoil, identifying industrial emissions as their common source. Concentrations of several OPAHs were higher than their parent PAHs, but their vertical distribution in soil suggested only little higher mobility of OPAHs than their corresponding parent PAHs.     

Value of protected areas to avian persistence across 20 years of climate and land-use change

Establishing protected areas, where human activities and land cover changes are restricted, is among the most widely used strategies for biodiversity conservation. This practice is based on the assumption that protected areas buffer species from processes that drive extinction. However, protected areas can maintain biodiversity in the face of climate change and subsequent shifts in distributions have been questioned. We evaluated the degree to which protected areas influenced colonization and extinction patterns of 97 avian species over 20 years in the northeastern United States. We fitted single-visit dynamic occupancy models to data from Breeding Bird Atlases to quantify the magnitude of the effect of drivers of local colonization and extinction (e.g., climate, land cover, and amount of protected area) in heterogeneous landscapes that varied in the amount of area under protection. Colonization and extinction probabilities improved as the amount of protected area increased, but these effects were conditional on landscape context and species characteristics. In this forest-dominated region, benefits of additional land protection were greatest when both forest cover in a grid square and amount of protected area in neighboring grid squares were low. Effects did not vary with species’ migratory habit or conservation status. Increasing the amounts of land protection benefitted the range margins species but not the core range species. The greatest improvements in colonization and extinction rates accrued for forest birds relative to open-habitat or generalist species. Overall, protected areas stemmed extinction more than they promoted colonization. Our results indicate that land protection remains a viable conservation strategy despite changing habitat and climate, as protected areas both reduce the risk of local extinction and facilitate movement into new areas. Our findings suggest conservation in the face of climate change favors creation of new protected areas over enlarging existing ones as the optimal strategy to reduce extinction and provide stepping stones for the greatest number of species.     

Multi-criteria risk management with the use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DecernsMCDA</Emphasis>: methods and case studies

Emerging challenges of risk management, environmental protection, and land-use planning requires integration of stakeholder values and expert judgment. The process of decision making in situation of high uncertainty can be assisted through the use of decision support systems (DSSs). Such DSSs are often based on tools for spatial data representation (GIS) and environmental models that are integrated using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper presents DecernsMCDA implementing all major types of multi-criteria methods and tools (AHP, MAUT, Outranking) under the same user interface. In addition to providing ability for testing model uncertainty associated with selection of specific MCDA algorithms, DecernsMCDA implements new algorithms for parameter uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy sets. The paper illustrates application of DecernsMCDA for selecting remedial alternative at radiologically contaminated sites.     

Colony fusion causes within-colony variation in a parthenogenetic ant

The evolutionary stability of cooperation and altruism in colonies of social insects requires that nestmates be to some extent related. An efficient system of discrimination against non-nestmates protects the nest against unrelated conspecifics, which might exploit or parasitize the colony. The co-occurrence of unrelated individuals in mature colonies therefore is a rare event that deserves more attention. Here, we report on the relatively common incidence of colony fusion in the ant Platythyrea punctata. Workers of this ant can produce genetically identical female offspring from unfertilized eggs through thelytokous parthenogenesis. Consequently, the majority of colonies has a “clonal structure” and consists of individuals with identical multilocus genotypes. Nevertheless, field observations indicate that a surprisingly large percentage of colonies contain workers belonging to two or more different genetic lineages. Much of this genetic heterogeneity is incompatible with eventual recombination or mutation events, but instead appears to result from colony fusion or the adoption of unrelated individuals. Indeed, colonies of P. punctata from the Dominican Republic and Barbados readily merged in the laboratory and, after elimination of one of the two reproductive workers, formed stable, genetically heterogeneous colonies. We discuss the possible causes and benefits of colony fusion in natural populations.     

Using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model to link urinary biomarker concentrations to dietary exposure of perchlorate

Exposure to perchlorate is widespread in the United States and many studies have attempted to character the perchlorate exposure by estimating the average daily intakes of perchlorate. These approaches provided population-based estimates, but did not provide individual-level exposure estimates. Until recently, exposure activity database such as CSFII, TDS and NHANES become available and provide opportunities to evaluate the individual-level exposure to chemical using exposure surveillance dataset. In this study, we use perchlorate as an example to investigate the usefulness of urinary biomarker data for predicting exposures at the individual level. Specifically, two analyses were conducted: (1) using data from a controlled human study to examine the ability of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to predict perchlorate concentrations in single-spot and cumulative urine samples; and (2) using biomarker data from a population-based study and a PBPK model to demonstrate the challenges in linking urinary biomarker concentrations to intake doses for individuals. Results showed that the modeling approach was able to characterize the distribution of biomarker concentrations at the population level, but predicting the exposure-biomarker relationship for individuals was much more difficult. The type of information needed to reduce the uncertainty in estimating intake doses, for individuals, based on biomarker measurements is discussed.     

Laboratory and field investigations of particulate and carbon monoxide emissions from traditional and improved cookstoves

We implemented a program in which emission characterization is enabled through collaborations between academic, US and international non-governmental entities that focus on evaluation, dissemination, and in-use testing, of improved cookstoves. This effort resulted in a study of field and laboratory emissions from traditional and improved biofuel cookstoves. We found that field measured particulate emissions of actual cooking average three times those measured during simulated cooking in the laboratory. Emission factors are highly dependent on the care and skill of the operator and the resulting combustion; these do not appear to be accurately reproduced in laboratory settings. The single scattering albedo (SSA) of the emissions was very low in both lab and field measurements, averaging about 0.3 for lab tests and around 0.5 for field tests, indicating that the primary particles are climate warming. Over the course of three summers in Honduras, we measured field emissions from traditional cookstoves, relatively new improved cookstoves, and “broken-in” improved cookstoves. We found that well-designed improved cookstoves can significantly reduce PM and CO emission factors below traditional cookstoves. For improved stoves, the presence of a chimney generally resulted in lower emission factors but left the SSA unaffected. Traditional cookstoves had an average PM emission factor of 8.2 g kg^?1 – significantly larger than previous studies. Particulate emission factors for improved cookstoves without and with chimneys averaged about 6.6 g kg^?1 and 4.5 g kg^?1, respectively. The elemental carbon (EC) fraction of PM varied significantly between individual tests, but averaged about 25% for each of the categories.     

Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho1

Stratton, Benjamin T., Venakataramana Sridhar, Molly M. Gribb, James P. McNamara, and Balaji Narasimhan, 2009. Modeling the Spatially Varying Water Balance Processes in a Semiarid Mountainous Watershed of Idaho. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 45(6):1390‐1408. Abstract: The distributed Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model was applied to a research watershed, the Dry Creek Experimental Watershed, near Boise Idaho to investigate its water balance components both temporally and spatially. Calibrating and validating SWAT is necessary to enable our understanding of the water balance components in this semiarid watershed. Daily streamflow data from four streamflow gages were used for calibration and validation of the model. Monthly estimates of streamflow during the calibration phase by SWAT produced satisfactory results with a Nash Sutcliffe coefficient of model efficiency 0.79. Since it is a continuous simulation model, as opposed to an event‐based model, it demonstrated the limited ability in capturing both streamflow and soil moisture for selected rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events during the validation period between 2005 and 2007. Especially, soil moisture was generally underestimated compared with observations from two monitoring pits. However, our implementation of SWAT showed that seasonal and annual water balance partitioning of precipitation into evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, and drainage was not only possible but closely followed the trends of a typical semiarid watershed in the intermountain west. This study highlights the necessity for better techniques to precisely identify and drive the model with commonly observed climatic inversion‐related snowmelt or ROS weather events. Estimation of key parameters pertaining to soil (e.g., available water content and saturated hydraulic conductivity), snow (e.g., lapse rates, melting), and vegetation (e.g., leaf area index and maximum canopy index) using additional field observations in the watershed is critical for better prediction.